What Independence Would Have to Mean

Empty chairs arranged in a circle inside a public hall, with a damaged street visible through the windows.

On Sovereignty, Consent, and the Rule of Law in Donetsk and Luhansk If sovereignty and territorial integrity lie at the centre of the war, could an agreed settlement create independent, self-governing entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, outside the jurisdiction of…

What Outside Support Cannot Settle

Illustration of two roads ending at a broken crossing above a river in a damaged landscape.

On Military Aid, Sovereignty, and the Conditions for a Durable Ceasefire What can outside states change in a war they do not enter directly? Their assistance can affect how long a country can defend itself, what losses it can withstand,…

The Threshold of Intervention

An empty dark corridor ends at a half-open door overlooking a distant landscape.

On Ceasefire Monitoring, Criminal Accountability, and the Choice to Enter a War If Ukraine and Russia agree to a renewed ceasefire, an international military presence may be possible, but it would not follow automatically. The parties would first need to…

What a Call for Peace Cannot Establish

A dark line ends on translucent paper before reaching a city visible beneath it.

On the Security Council, Ceasefire Terms, and the Distance Between Appeal and Agreement The international community has repeatedly called for an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine and for a peace consistent with the UN Charter. Yet a call for…

When a Ceasefire Has No Means of Enforcement

An empty monitoring room with a desk, notebook, and unlit lamp overlooks a divided landscape through a wide window.

What Minsk and Dayton reveal about monitoring, military guarantees, and the distance between stopping a war and securing peace A ceasefire can be watched without being kept. Monitors may record where fighting resumes, identify patterns of violation, and make denial…